* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* COSME EP062007 07/20/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 37 35 37 39 43 47
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 37 35 37 39 43 47
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 38 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 1 8 11 11 12 17 20 29 24 22 16 5 N/A
SHEAR DIR 269 298 291 310 302 319 285 301 297 273 290 316 N/A
SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 116 118 121 129 131 134 136 138 141 142 N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.2 -54.3 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 44 41 45 43 44 42 44 46 51 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 83 65 56 48 53 44 37 31 13 11 -3 8 N/A
200 MB DIV -1 -4 5 6 3 -18 -18 -21 -15 20 -9 -17 N/A
LAND (KM) 790 618 460 325 206 318 492 654 883 1151 1446 1734 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 148.3 150.1 151.8 153.5 155.1 158.4 161.5 164.4 167.3 170.2 173.2 176.1 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 7. 8. 13. 15.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY