* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 41 41 41 43 46 51 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 41 41 41 43 46 51 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 39 40 43 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 10 13 14 15 23 21 24 21 11 15 N/A SHEAR DIR 295 303 328 325 309 299 298 306 290 277 353 352 N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 118 121 125 130 131 135 138 140 141 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 45 44 44 45 45 44 42 45 48 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 57 47 59 55 47 32 26 5 21 8 37 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 11 24 21 0 3 -21 -7 -5 -31 -33 37 N/A LAND (KM) 648 522 415 305 276 473 658 823 1051 1339 1624 1893 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.1 18.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.9 151.5 153.0 154.7 156.3 159.6 162.5 165.6 168.7 171.9 174.8 177.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 13 13 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 12. 11. 13. 15. 19. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 16. 21. 24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY