* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/20/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 38 39 37 38 40 44 46 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 38 39 37 38 40 44 46 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 38 39 40 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 14 16 15 21 26 30 25 25 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 305 299 308 296 273 290 290 268 295 353 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 121 124 129 131 134 137 139 142 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 41 40 45 43 45 39 42 41 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 51 57 48 46 31 12 5 0 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 2 16 5 -13 -14 -17 -25 -3 -23 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 460 341 241 241 329 544 700 948 1266 1554 1788 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.8 153.4 155.0 156.6 158.2 161.5 164.5 167.7 171.2 174.3 176.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 16 16 14 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 8. 10. 14. 16. 20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/20/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY