* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982007 07/21/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 47 53 58 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 47 53 58 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 35 39 44 48 SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 27 30 27 24 15 17 9 7 11 14 14 SHEAR DIR 18 31 40 48 60 64 69 75 110 112 147 145 175 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 164 163 159 156 153 150 147 144 142 136 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 76 76 71 74 74 69 67 64 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 7 -4 -11 -13 1 24 43 57 55 54 17 200 MB DIV 54 59 36 40 19 57 30 70 78 58 44 23 -37 LAND (KM) 460 460 467 480 492 559 662 769 856 883 889 867 813 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.1 100.3 101.5 102.7 103.9 106.4 108.6 110.4 111.7 112.8 113.7 114.6 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 19. 27. 33. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 33. 38. 41. 43. 45. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. 47. 48. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 07/21/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 07/21/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY