* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP982007 07/21/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 40 44 52 59 61 58 54 50 49 46
V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 40 44 52 59 61 58 54 50 49 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 36 34 33 33 32
SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 24 28 27 27 24 28 26 22 16 19 13
SHEAR DIR 50 66 70 82 85 86 90 97 83 84 79 103 122
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 157 155 149 144 144 141 136 130 119
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 65 66 66 68 66 58 51 46 40 36
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -20 -26 -33 -33 -15 6 19 21 14 13 11 17
200 MB DIV 64 49 65 40 43 62 56 64 45 53 9 -30 -40
LAND (KM) 665 697 715 772 842 985 1124 1184 1284 1335 1373 1382 1354
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.4 105.7 107.2 108.6 111.5 114.2 116.5 118.5 120.0 121.1 121.9 122.6
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 7 5 6 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 27. 30. 29. 26. 23. 21. 18.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 15. 19. 27. 34. 36. 33. 29. 25. 24. 21.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 07/21/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 07/21/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY