* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982007 07/22/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 49 56 62 62 57 52 49 47 45 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 49 56 62 62 57 52 49 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 34 SHEAR (KTS) 19 23 24 22 23 26 29 28 28 19 18 9 5 SHEAR DIR 54 67 82 85 86 95 99 96 89 77 68 68 23 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 158 156 151 144 143 139 131 126 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 68 67 66 57 50 45 45 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -29 -34 -27 -16 6 14 15 10 14 26 20 19 200 MB DIV 60 74 40 43 71 58 64 38 31 10 -26 -27 -39 LAND (KM) 619 654 709 764 838 1010 1087 1197 1295 1367 1451 1546 1625 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 106.1 107.5 109.0 110.5 113.4 116.1 118.3 120.2 121.7 122.8 123.8 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 27. 28. 24. 20. 17. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 26. 32. 32. 27. 22. 19. 17. 15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 07/22/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 07/22/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY