* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/22/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 30 31 32 32 33 35 37 39 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 30 31 32 32 33 35 37 39 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 26 27 27 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 307 303 303 294 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 138 139 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 37 37 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 3 -1 -13 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -6 0 -31 -42 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 759 884 1030 1191 1530 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.4 164.2 166.0 167.9 169.8 173.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/22/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 1.5 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/22/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY