* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVEN EP072007 07/22/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 59 59 59 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 59 59 59 59 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 39 42 45 SHEAR (KTS) 19 24 25 23 23 21 20 18 18 6 15 12 12 SHEAR DIR 60 67 73 72 74 74 72 66 78 68 130 127 137 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 154 154 153 151 149 149 148 146 140 130 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 73 76 74 68 68 65 64 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -21 -26 -19 5 43 52 53 51 43 18 -10 200 MB DIV 77 50 34 51 58 84 80 70 73 53 18 -30 -17 LAND (KM) 666 681 703 729 746 802 861 866 819 784 746 688 668 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.0 108.6 109.9 110.9 111.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 113.9 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 34. 34. 34. 34. 34. 34. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED