* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/22/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 37 39 40 42 45 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 37 39 40 42 45 48 50 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 23 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 306 306 299 293 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 35 37 36 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 2 -5 -21 -30 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -4 -25 -30 -31 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 792 915 1055 1208 1370 1702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.5 166.3 168.0 169.8 171.6 175.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/22/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/22/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY