* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* SEVEN EP072007 07/22/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 44 51 56 59 63 64 62 59
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 44 51 56 59 63 64 62 59
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 39 41 44 48 50 51
SHEAR (KTS) 22 27 25 23 21 20 21 16 8 7 4 7 3
SHEAR DIR 61 64 64 62 70 62 55 60 71 69 102 100 138
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 26.8 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 154 154 152 151 150 149 148 142 131 118
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -52.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 4
700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 74 74 76 71 67 64 64 60 54 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 12 11 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -18 -25 -21 -12 21 42 52 48 46 20 2 -12
200 MB DIV 57 26 57 62 66 116 84 77 56 43 -17 -29 -37
LAND (KM) 656 674 697 734 761 803 806 804 785 715 643 621 612
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.2 20.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.5 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.8 110.5 111.0 111.4 112.2 113.3 114.5 115.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 9 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 25. 30. 32. 35. 34. 32. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. 32. 29.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY