* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* SEVEN EP072007 07/22/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 39 45 49 52 54 55 55 51 48
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 39 45 49 52 54 55 55 51 48
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 42 43 42
SHEAR (KTS) 25 26 26 24 25 25 21 15 12 13 7 8 6
SHEAR DIR 52 55 58 69 63 64 57 70 53 86 76 75 17
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.0 26.1 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 154 152 150 149 149 146 133 123 114
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 74 75 71 67 67 63 62 59 55 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7
850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -23 -10 2 34 53 54 49 37 12 -5 -24
200 MB DIV 41 63 72 68 82 81 70 62 27 12 -15 -8 -15
LAND (KM) 715 732 753 769 792 822 826 822 762 667 576 596 643
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.5 19.2 20.1 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.4 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 9 8 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 28. 27. 26. 23. 19.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 21. 18.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 SEVEN 07/22/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY