* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 07/23/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 37 39 42 44 42 37 29 22
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 37 39 42 44 42 37 29 22
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 43 46 48 47 43 39
SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 12 10 8 9 3 9 19 23 45 44 37
SHEAR DIR 295 309 335 359 328 24 30 12 6 44 79 106 123
SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.5 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 100 99 99 101 101 101 96 96 96 92 92
ADJ. POT. INT. 88 87 85 84 84 84 83 83 80 81 81 78 78
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -54.5 -53.9 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 67 63 65 62 59 56 51 52 44 43 42 41 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -73 -90 -85 -96 -92 -79 -47 -55 -67 -83 -114 -110 -123
200 MB DIV 10 20 34 18 -16 5 -14 2 -38 -49 -33 -13 25
LAND (KM) 1166 1097 1023 946 869 724 635 576 589 678 778 851 890
LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.8 34.5 35.2 35.9 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.4 39.2 38.7 38.5 38.6
LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.3 63.0 62.3 61.0 59.4 57.7 56.2 55.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 6 6 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 11. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 8. 1. -5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 12. 7. -1. -8.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 07/23/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 07/23/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY