*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *  COSME       EP062007  07/23/07  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    25    27    30    34    38    41    44    48    52    55    59
V (KT) LAND       25    25    25    27    30    34    38    41    44    48    52    55    59
V (KT) LGE mod    25    24    23    23    23   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)       22    23    22    17    20   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        299   293   288   263   263   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         27.0  27.1  27.3  27.4  27.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   137   138   140   141   142   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)      12    12    12    11    12   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     32    31    33    35    35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     7     7     6     6  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -2   -14   -19   -22   -15   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV       -15   -23    -8    -6     9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)       1107  1284  1471  1655  1845   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     16.1  16.2  16.2  16.4  16.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    168.3 170.4 172.4 174.4 176.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    19    20    19    19    19   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18      CX,CY: -17/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  694  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  19.4 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  14.0 (MEAN=65.9)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   8.  12.  17.  21.  24.  26.  27.  28.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   0.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  PERSISTENCE           -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.  10.  11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   8.   7.   7.   7.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       0.   1.   3.   5.   9.  14.  18.  21.  24.  25.  28.  31.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -5.  -2.   0.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -2.   0.   2.   1.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      0.   0.   2.   5.   9.  13.  16.  19.  23.  27.  30.  34.

   ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME      07/23/07  00 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range: -20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  20.8 Range:  18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -8.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 114.9 Range:  37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  55.2 Range:  65.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  11.0 Range:  26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.4 Range:  38.3 to   5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 
 Scaled RI index=   1.6 Prob of RI=   2% is   0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
 Discrim RI index=  2.7 Prob of RI=   3% is   0.2 times the sample mean(13%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME      07/23/07  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY