* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVEN EP072007 07/23/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 44 49 51 52 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 44 49 51 52 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 26 26 25 22 26 25 18 13 12 4 1 6 7 SHEAR DIR 50 58 67 62 65 65 62 67 78 92 162 212 201 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.4 25.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 154 152 152 151 149 145 138 127 114 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 76 74 72 70 65 65 63 60 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -25 -11 0 12 42 60 55 49 30 18 7 -6 200 MB DIV 67 87 74 83 102 72 72 31 23 -18 -13 -18 -31 LAND (KM) 715 736 748 760 777 777 768 717 648 606 619 619 690 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.6 113.6 114.9 116.4 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 10. 15. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 19. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 19. 17. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 SEVEN 07/23/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 SEVEN 07/23/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY