* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* SEVEN EP072007 07/23/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 50 54 55 54 53 48 45
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 50 54 55 54 53 48 45
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 40 40 38
SHEAR (KTS) 26 26 20 19 18 20 13 12 11 6 6 4 6
SHEAR DIR 48 62 57 52 55 54 49 63 72 80 112 185 192
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.0 24.4 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 152 151 150 149 145 135 123 107 87
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 1
700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 73 73 69 66 66 65 62 60 54 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -9 5 19 37 47 53 39 24 10 3 -11 -11
200 MB DIV 82 81 88 130 88 81 62 23 12 -18 0 -22 -24
LAND (KM) 739 747 761 762 768 765 746 679 599 570 621 633 681
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.0 21.2 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.7 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.7 111.1 111.7 112.4 113.7 115.4 117.1 118.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 9 9 11 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. 1. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 24. 29. 29. 26. 24. 19. 15.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 24. 23. 18. 15.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 SEVEN 07/23/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 SEVEN 07/23/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY