* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL872007 07/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 40 44 49 52 53 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 40 44 49 52 53 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 30 31 34 35 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 10 11 14 19 23 18 19 23 25 19 18 SHEAR DIR 223 233 226 231 238 233 265 254 282 272 295 312 333 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 140 142 141 141 144 147 151 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 137 138 140 139 137 134 136 139 143 148 147 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 40 37 36 34 35 37 40 42 48 48 53 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 18 19 21 10 10 11 3 18 21 13 7 200 MB DIV -8 -10 -18 -16 -19 -41 -9 -29 2 -22 1 -19 11 LAND (KM) 632 543 440 355 307 398 356 222 161 139 33 29 15 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.3 57.3 58.5 59.6 61.9 64.1 65.9 67.6 69.5 71.4 73.1 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 8 6 2 3 1 4 6 7 6 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 37. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 36. 35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL872007 TEST 07/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL872007 TEST 07/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY