* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 56 58 58 56 52 44 36 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 56 58 58 56 52 44 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 42 44 46 48 49 47 43 37 SHEAR (KTS) 24 20 17 16 19 17 11 9 7 2 5 11 12 SHEAR DIR 55 59 57 53 55 55 47 35 356 27 162 163 174 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.1 25.8 24.2 22.7 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 152 150 148 142 134 121 104 89 77 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 76 73 69 68 65 62 59 55 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 15 35 49 50 53 47 41 24 20 22 12 8 200 MB DIV 79 96 124 73 65 78 40 17 -27 -8 -31 -22 -22 LAND (KM) 653 658 667 666 668 677 590 534 546 558 601 673 730 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.7 114.1 115.6 117.2 118.9 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 20. 18. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 27. 29. 28. 24. 18. 10. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 23. 23. 21. 17. 9. 1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY