*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *  DALILA      EP072007  07/23/07  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    37    39    42    45    51    56    58    58    56    52    44    36
V (KT) LAND       35    37    39    42    45    51    56    58    58    56    52    44    36
V (KT) LGE mod    35    37    38    39    40    42    44    46    48    49    47    43    37

SHEAR (KTS)       24    20    17    16    19    17    11     9     7     2     5    11    12
SHEAR DIR         55    59    57    53    55    55    47    35   356    27   162   163   174
SST (C)         29.0  29.0  29.0  28.9  28.9  28.7  28.5  27.9  27.1  25.8  24.2  22.7  21.6
POT. INT. (KT)   154   153   153   152   152   150   148   142   134   121   104    89    77
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     7     6     6     4     3     2     2     0
700-500 MB RH     79    77    76    76    73    69    68    65    62    59    55    46    41
GFS VTEX (KT)     12    12    13    13    13    13    14    14    13    11    10     8     6
850 MB ENV VOR    -2    15    35    49    50    53    47    41    24    20    22    12     8
200 MB DIV        79    96   124    73    65    78    40    17   -27    -8   -31   -22   -22
LAND (KM)        653   658   667   666   668   677   590   534   546   558   601   673   730
LAT (DEG N)     14.6  14.9  15.2  15.6  16.0  16.8  17.8  18.8  19.8  20.8  21.8  22.8  23.8
LONG(DEG W)    108.6 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.7 114.1 115.6 117.2 118.9 120.8
STM SPEED (KT)     7     5     5     5     5     6     7     8     9     9     9    10    10

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10      CX,CY:  -5/  8
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  667  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  28.0 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  31.0 (MEAN=65.9)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   5.  10.  15.  19.  22.  22.  20.  18.  14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   7.  10.  14.  21.  27.  29.  28.  24.  18.  10.   2.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -2.   0.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT      -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -3.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   7.  10.  16.  21.  23.  23.  21.  17.   9.   1.

   ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA     07/23/07  12 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range: -20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  19.2 Range:  18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  87.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 117.4 Range:  37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  81.2 Range:  65.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  25.0 Range:  26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  28.0 Range:  38.3 to   5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 
 Scaled RI index=   3.0 Prob of RI=   8% is   0.6 times the sample mean(13%)
 Discrim RI index=  3.2 Prob of RI=  11% is   0.8 times the sample mean(13%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA     07/23/07  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY