* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 45 50 52 51 49 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 45 50 52 51 49 44 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 39 41 42 40 36 31 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 17 16 18 15 9 7 4 2 7 9 11 SHEAR DIR 51 48 49 44 46 66 45 49 5 200 220 186 178 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.4 24.9 23.2 22.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 149 144 136 127 112 94 82 78 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 70 70 67 63 59 58 56 55 48 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 14 15 15 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 34 51 51 53 53 48 44 48 46 53 29 35 200 MB DIV 90 121 75 61 68 48 47 2 2 -5 -37 -42 -15 LAND (KM) 638 637 641 646 653 615 538 522 556 564 643 700 802 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.5 23.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.4 111.3 112.4 113.6 114.9 116.4 118.1 119.9 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 17. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 23. 21. 17. 10. 3. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 16. 14. 9. 2. -4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY