* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/24/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 42 46 45 45 42 36 31 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 42 46 45 45 42 36 31 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 38 36 31 26 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 15 15 13 9 7 7 5 6 6 6 11 SHEAR DIR 44 47 48 39 53 59 46 23 340 281 271 193 168 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.0 24.6 23.1 22.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 151 146 140 132 122 107 92 81 71 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 70 69 64 65 64 61 60 51 48 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 38 54 54 59 57 54 46 31 18 1 -20 -19 -19 200 MB DIV 113 79 55 56 66 45 35 -16 13 -18 -24 -19 -20 LAND (KM) 599 593 593 591 560 499 441 439 459 443 480 529 564 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.0 23.0 23.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.4 110.7 111.4 112.2 113.2 114.3 115.4 116.6 118.0 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 16. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 16. 15. 10. 3. -3. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 10. 10. 7. 1. -4. -11. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY