* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/24/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 43 45 45 43 39 33 27 23 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 43 45 45 43 39 33 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 36 32 28 23 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 12 12 11 4 6 3 1 6 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 45 41 35 34 51 68 59 19 274 316 286 269 209 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.3 25.9 24.0 22.8 22.4 21.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 149 144 136 121 102 89 85 76 73 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 71 70 69 69 67 63 60 52 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 56 54 60 46 34 31 14 6 -12 -12 -9 200 MB DIV 65 69 69 52 28 34 8 6 -1 -27 -8 1 2 LAND (KM) 583 573 563 546 495 429 389 396 353 410 509 573 701 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.5 110.8 111.5 112.4 113.5 114.7 116.0 117.3 119.0 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 7 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 17. 17. 14. 8. 0. -6. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. -2. -8. -12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY