* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/24/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 56 56 53 48 41 32 26 20 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 56 56 53 48 41 32 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 47 48 47 44 40 35 31 26 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 10 11 7 9 4 4 2 5 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 40 33 43 62 72 64 49 19 227 279 232 181 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.0 24.8 23.7 23.0 22.3 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 148 146 139 132 122 109 98 91 84 78 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 67 66 68 66 63 60 51 47 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 44 45 37 31 23 20 13 0 -7 -10 0 200 MB DIV 72 71 49 48 33 32 -7 2 -21 -46 -43 -17 -18 LAND (KM) 677 663 610 565 523 488 501 514 541 603 691 753 835 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.9 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.7 113.8 115.0 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.3 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 16. 13. 8. 1. -8. -14. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 16. 13. 8. 1. -8. -14. -20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY