* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/24/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 63 65 63 58 51 43 34 28 22
V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 63 65 63 58 51 43 34 28 22
V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 57 58 58 57 54 49 44 38 32 27
SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 14 9 5 7 7 5 4 2 4 6 5
SHEAR DIR 16 32 58 77 58 52 14 102 268 266 289 209 198
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 26.7 25.6 24.4 23.5 22.7 22.2 21.7
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 148 146 138 129 118 106 96 87 82 77
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 72 67 68 67 66 67 68 61 58 49 44 39 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 40 28 28 19 11 3 4 -4 3 -5 -5
200 MB DIV 79 59 41 31 33 1 -4 3 -24 -40 -4 -5 0
LAND (KM) 604 598 550 509 474 439 457 471 528 634 702 767 833
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.3 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.6
LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.5 110.8 111.2 111.6 112.5 113.6 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.2 120.6 121.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 7. 0. -7. -16. -23. -28.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 13. 8. 1. -7. -16. -22. -28.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/24/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY