* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/25/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 65 65 63 57 48 39 29 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 65 65 63 57 48 39 29 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 61 62 62 59 55 48 41 34 28 22 SHEAR (KTS) 18 10 7 5 6 5 4 3 6 9 8 11 17 SHEAR DIR 27 61 80 73 57 35 10 276 269 262 225 236 203 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.0 24.9 23.6 22.7 22.1 21.8 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 144 141 131 122 111 97 87 81 79 74 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 69 71 68 65 62 53 47 41 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 29 26 23 4 0 -3 -9 -4 -5 -4 0 200 MB DIV 60 42 31 30 29 -18 -9 -24 -38 -24 -13 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 546 499 454 425 406 431 459 489 565 651 709 784 881 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.6 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.7 110.9 111.4 111.9 113.2 114.3 115.7 117.2 118.7 119.9 121.3 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 8 8 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 13. 8. -1. -10. -20. -29. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 13. 7. -2. -11. -21. -29. -37. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY