* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/25/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 48 45 41 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 48 45 41 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 52 50 45 39 33 27 22 18
SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 5 3 2 4 5 11 9 15 12 10 16
SHEAR DIR 48 74 88 36 81 306 196 226 225 238 216 206 219
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.1 24.0 23.2 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 138 134 125 113 102 93 86 81 79 76
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 71 70 68 63 56 45 41 35 31 25
GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 32 26 18 7 1 -4 -18 -5 -9 1 0
200 MB DIV 35 24 34 38 -2 -7 -12 -15 -30 -17 -16 -14 -19
LAND (KM) 484 437 394 379 374 400 428 501 620 701 789 894 1000
LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.1 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.3 114.8 116.4 117.9 119.4 120.9 122.4 123.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -16. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -5. -15. -25. -35. -41. -46.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -9. -6. -4. -5. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -17. -24. -31. -39. -46. -50.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY