* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/25/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 39 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 39 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 42 41 38 35 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 3 3 1 2 7 9 11 12 14 15 19 SHEAR DIR 41 66 71 111 296 182 239 232 229 227 237 236 254 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.8 24.6 23.2 22.2 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 132 127 120 108 93 83 75 74 73 74 73 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 68 64 62 53 48 40 34 29 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 15 15 13 12 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 35 26 20 13 7 -3 -5 -7 -9 -5 -28 200 MB DIV 21 34 43 7 -20 -5 -22 -26 -19 -12 4 -6 -15 LAND (KM) 416 396 386 400 418 421 503 574 631 712 808 915 1043 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.2 112.6 113.2 113.8 115.2 116.8 118.3 119.7 120.9 122.1 123.3 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -18. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -22. -33. -43. -52. -56. -58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -28. -38. -46. -54. -57. -60. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY