* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/25/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 33 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 33 32 29 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 6 3 4 7 10 12 13 12 10 14 12
SHEAR DIR 16 58 96 135 182 175 196 203 201 209 205 228 229
SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.0 22.8 21.9 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2
POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 128 121 114 102 89 80 75 73 73 73 72
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2
700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 68 65 63 58 49 43 35 32 26 25
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 24 16 21 9 10 1 3 -1 -3 -12 -5
200 MB DIV 24 42 4 -24 -17 -14 -8 -24 -5 -21 -10 -17 -22
LAND (KM) 392 383 387 411 400 445 557 628 732 822 888 1006 1169
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2
LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.7 114.3 115.8 117.5 119.2 120.9 122.2 123.0 124.3 126.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -21. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -30. -40. -49. -58. -63. -62.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -25. -35. -44. -52. -60. -64. -64.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/25/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY