* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/26/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 36 34 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 3 3 4 7 9 13 12 7 11 13 10 SHEAR DIR 63 96 141 187 167 201 199 205 210 221 220 262 238 SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.5 24.8 23.8 22.4 21.8 21.5 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 123 117 110 100 85 78 74 76 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 64 61 57 52 46 39 35 29 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 18 20 16 6 -3 -7 -11 -9 -3 -21 -16 200 MB DIV 24 -1 -30 -14 -14 -41 -34 -19 -18 -5 -15 -5 -25 LAND (KM) 382 393 419 422 430 521 591 647 716 814 950 1031 1089 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.4 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.4 115.1 116.7 118.3 119.6 120.7 121.9 123.4 124.3 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 6 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. -17. -20. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -22. -33. -45. -52. -59. -63. -63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -23. -33. -46. -53. -60. -63. -63. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY