* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/26/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 42 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 42 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 46 45 39 32 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 3 3 6 13 13 14 15 10 15 14 13 SHEAR DIR 91 147 194 182 174 216 215 215 225 208 222 246 232 SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.4 24.8 24.0 22.7 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 116 111 102 88 78 75 75 74 72 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 63 62 56 49 43 34 31 29 25 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 13 13 10 9 7 5 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 15 11 12 6 -6 0 2 -10 -14 -26 -24 200 MB DIV -6 -23 -12 -6 -18 -22 -21 -15 -10 -16 -35 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 370 394 395 408 445 548 591 685 808 895 943 1039 1168 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.2 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.4 114.0 114.9 115.8 117.5 118.9 120.4 121.9 122.9 123.5 124.5 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -12. -22. -36. -48. -57. -64. -68. -70. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. -1. -3. -13. -24. -38. -50. -58. -65. -69. -70. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY