* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/26/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 38 36 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 6 8 7 12 14 19 15 16 14 15 14
SHEAR DIR 148 170 148 187 199 211 214 204 232 209 229 213 237
SST (C) 25.4 24.6 23.8 23.2 22.6 21.6 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 117 108 100 94 87 77 71 69 70 71 70 70 70
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 70 68 63 64 63 55 50 44 40 35 28 24 21
GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 16 14 10 0 -8 0 2 1 -15 -20 -26
200 MB DIV -22 -3 0 -22 -38 -18 -16 -9 -12 -20 -17 -21 0
LAND (KM) 372 367 383 430 491 539 596 687 785 901 1027 1130 1217
LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.5 115.2 116.1 116.9 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.3 123.5 124.8 125.8 126.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. -32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -17. -19. -19. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -11. -21. -33. -46. -57. -65. -72. -75. -76.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -5. -10. -20. -33. -46. -57. -66. -72. -75. -75.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY