* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DALILA EP072007 07/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 35 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 8 9 10 14 16 18 11 12 9 8 8 SHEAR DIR 220 114 177 203 215 198 212 218 227 222 244 256 267 SST (C) 24.5 23.8 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 108 100 93 87 82 73 70 68 69 71 71 71 73 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 62 58 61 57 49 42 39 35 31 27 21 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 16 10 4 -7 -1 -7 -3 -15 -21 -25 -23 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -29 -44 -22 -26 -2 -2 -24 -22 -10 -23 -11 LAND (KM) 385 415 462 514 530 586 664 717 772 864 995 1125 1249 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.2 117.9 119.4 120.7 121.5 122.1 123.1 124.5 125.9 127.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 4 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -32. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -16. -28. -42. -54. -65. -72. -76. -77. -76. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -12. -18. -30. -45. -58. -68. -73. -77. -78. -76. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY