* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST EP852007 07/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 34 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 34 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 35 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 7 8 10 13 17 17 9 11 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 228 121 180 208 216 201 213 216 225 221 245 258 275 SST (C) 24.6 23.8 23.2 22.7 22.2 21.4 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 108 100 94 88 83 74 70 68 68 70 71 71 72 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 61 62 62 57 49 42 38 37 32 27 22 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 8 5 0 -10 -6 -12 -4 -15 -21 -24 -23 200 MB DIV -5 -11 -28 -45 -20 -26 -2 -3 -21 -23 -12 -21 -10 LAND (KM) 353 375 416 469 498 550 622 673 726 817 948 1077 1223 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.1 115.9 116.7 117.4 118.9 120.2 121.0 121.6 122.6 124.0 125.4 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 4 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -26. -30. -32. -32. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -16. -28. -42. -54. -64. -71. -75. -76. -74. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -10. -16. -28. -43. -55. -66. -72. -75. -76. -74. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP852007 TEST 07/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP852007 TEST 07/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY