* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/27/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 7 11 12 17 20 18 13 16 12 14 14
SHEAR DIR 128 170 183 187 201 207 213 237 225 257 248 254 248
SST (C) 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.1 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.2 21.6 21.9
POT. INT. (KT) 102 96 91 86 82 74 73 72 71 70 72 76 79
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 53 47 43 35 35 33 29 26 21 18
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 20 11 4 8 12 5 3 -11 -8 -8 2
200 MB DIV 0 -23 -47 -23 -30 -22 -10 -12 -19 -12 -10 -3 -31
LAND (KM) 445 486 536 578 617 722 865 969 1071 1175 1286 1363 1343
LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.3 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.8
LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.2 118.1 118.9 121.1 122.8 124.0 125.0 126.2 127.4 129.1 129.9
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 9 6 5 5 6 7 6 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -19. -23. -26. -27. -28. -27. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -27. -41. -53. -63. -69. -74. -75. -74.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -10. -15. -28. -42. -55. -64. -70. -73. -74. -73.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/27/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/27/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY