* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* DALILA EP072007 07/27/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 9 10 13 19 17 16 18 17 21 21 N/A
SHEAR DIR 155 174 199 184 211 212 237 221 243 235 235 259 N/A
SST (C) 22.9 22.4 22.0 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.1 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.4 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 91 85 81 77 75 75 74 72 73 78 82 84 N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 53 47 45 43 35 34 33 26 23 18 19 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 8 -2 0 2 0 11 -1 4 1 2 N/A
200 MB DIV -33 -21 -24 -14 -7 -1 -10 -8 -9 -20 -27 -29 N/A
LAND (KM) 564 598 636 669 709 840 992 1147 1315 1414 1471 1580 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.1 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.4 119.2 120.0 120.7 122.4 124.1 125.9 127.7 129.8 131.3 132.5 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 6 N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -23. -21. -20. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -35. -47. -57. -65. -70. -73. -72. -69.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 2. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -20. -34. -46. -58. -67. -69. -70. -69. -65.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP072007 DALILA 07/27/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3
Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072007 DALILA 07/27/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY