* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/28/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 56 61 64 65 66 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 56 61 64 65 66 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 34 38 42 45 44 41 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 10 8 5 10 14 18 16 22 37 52 55 SHEAR DIR 303 262 293 283 262 285 290 309 267 261 253 259 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.1 25.8 25.5 24.8 22.7 19.5 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 144 143 137 126 113 111 106 94 83 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 125 125 125 119 110 98 96 93 85 78 72 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.9 -54.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 62 66 64 71 71 66 63 66 52 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 10 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -42 -42 -42 -19 15 63 109 121 93 71 13 200 MB DIV 8 40 35 23 43 29 60 38 54 57 13 30 33 LAND (KM) 511 550 588 667 722 752 628 568 633 546 466 492 465 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.6 27.2 29.1 31.2 33.5 35.8 38.2 40.4 42.4 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 73.6 73.4 73.1 72.8 72.2 71.3 70.2 68.7 65.9 61.7 56.0 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 10 12 13 15 18 21 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 2 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 42. 45. 46. 48. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 41. 44. 45. 46. 39. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/28/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/28/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY