* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 07/28/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 49 56 60 61 58 53 44
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 49 56 60 61 58 53 44
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 37 39 39 38 36
SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 7 5 4 11 20 22 29 34 37 34 33
SHEAR DIR 286 292 316 295 237 310 290 279 254 242 240 257 272
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.7 25.5 25.3 24.6 22.3 19.4 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 145 142 134 122 111 109 105 92 81 88
ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 126 126 124 117 106 96 95 92 83 75 81
200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 65 66 65 70 70 64 63 64 49 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7
850 MB ENV VOR -40 -42 -40 -34 -30 -12 36 73 98 64 39 2 -25
200 MB DIV 25 49 32 38 43 25 84 50 53 43 29 10 -9
LAND (KM) 526 582 639 732 774 715 597 577 588 516 503 494 674
LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.8 26.2 27.0 27.8 29.8 32.0 34.5 36.8 38.9 40.7 42.3 41.8
LONG(DEG W) 73.7 73.3 72.9 72.6 72.3 71.7 70.9 69.7 67.8 64.6 60.0 54.6 48.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 9 11 13 13 15 18 21 22 25
HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 29. 36. 41. 42. 39. 35. 28.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 29. 36. 40. 41. 38. 33. 24.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/28/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/28/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED