* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 07/29/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 46 53 54 54 54 53 51
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 46 53 54 54 54 53 51
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 27 29 30 30 30 30 29
SHEAR (KTS) 16 10 8 9 12 16 19 25 33 37 35 43 33
SHEAR DIR 293 286 254 228 263 248 259 255 269 262 268 267 279
SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.6 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.6 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 134 130 120 112 109 108 107 101 97 95
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 118 115 112 103 96 93 93 91 88 85 84
200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 1 1
700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 70 66 71 71 73 65 63 56 51 40
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 13 13 14 17 22 28
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -6 0 3 6 13 25 40 48 64 53 21 -38
200 MB DIV 40 41 59 55 41 61 75 53 59 16 28 0 7
LAND (KM) 683 729 761 715 681 658 712 811 749 657 663 733 754
LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.7 30.5 32.1 33.6 35.0 36.6 38.1 39.4 40.2 40.1
LONG(DEG W) 73.2 72.8 72.4 71.9 71.3 70.0 68.5 66.7 64.7 62.3 59.2 55.3 50.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 17
HEAT CONTENT 2 2 7 3 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 22. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 4. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. 11. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 33. 35. 35. 35. 35. 34.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 26. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 31.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY