* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 07/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 47 49 48 47 51 54 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 47 49 48 47 51 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 15 12 13 19 18 22 25 20 20 19 8 SHEAR DIR 91 93 108 99 89 84 102 97 99 106 75 59 85 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 144 146 147 145 145 140 138 142 147 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 65 65 63 64 58 54 50 46 47 53 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 9 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -22 -22 -15 -13 1 8 24 7 8 3 -23 24 200 MB DIV -12 3 22 34 27 32 43 37 13 0 15 1 62 LAND (KM) 1361 1458 1561 1649 1711 1874 2065 2252 2456 2371 2122 2039 1866 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 10.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.9 115.2 116.7 118.1 121.2 124.5 127.8 131.1 134.0 136.5 138.3 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 15 13 11 23 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 8. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 23. 21. 25. 27. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 22. 24. 23. 22. 26. 29. 32. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY