* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 07/29/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 46 52 54 55 53 52 46
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 46 52 54 55 53 52 46
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 24
SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 14 16 15 27 32 47 53 62 45 36 21
SHEAR DIR 284 232 261 283 239 254 235 242 227 232 219 244 257
SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.3 22.9 18.5 13.9 10.7 20.1 21.5 19.0
POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 120 114 111 109 94 79 73 66 81 90 81
ADJ. POT. INT. 116 110 104 99 96 95 83 73 70 64 74 83 76
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.0 -53.7 -52.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 3 1 0 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 71 73 64 63 60 57 56 42 37 33
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 11 12 15 17 18 22 24 30 34
850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 32 32 35 73 75 99 141 130 41 -9 -31
200 MB DIV 52 57 61 39 73 73 56 76 59 84 46 6 5
LAND (KM) 632 576 539 524 541 542 450 300 242 292 592 902 1387
LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.2 32.2 33.4 34.5 37.0 39.4 41.9 44.8 47.6 41.7 43.0 43.8
LONG(DEG W) 72.7 72.1 71.5 70.8 70.1 68.4 66.0 62.5 57.3 48.9 50.5 42.9 35.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 15 17 21 28 14 16 27 26
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 824 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. 15. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 33. 34. 36. 34. 33. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 26. 32. 34. 35. 33. 32. 26.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY