* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 07/29/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 48 49 48 48 52 59 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 48 49 48 48 52 59 56
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 28 27 27 28
SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 13 17 18 18 19 25 17 15 11 18 10
SHEAR DIR 79 78 87 80 77 85 90 106 118 102 66 66 73
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.8 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 146 148 148 146 146 139 136 134 132 142 144
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 62 65 60 54 55 43 39 45 52 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 10 11 11 11 11 12 16 13
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -14 -9 0 11 30 32 31 0 -8 -21 -42
200 MB DIV 23 24 17 29 35 48 38 13 10 10 -11 -17 -3
LAND (KM) 1538 1609 1667 1736 1816 1983 2173 2360 2310 1966 1765 1901 1797
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.6 14.1 13.0 10.7 9.7
LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.7 118.0 119.5 121.0 124.2 127.5 130.7 134.0 137.2 139.7 139.6 141.5
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 16 14 10 10 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 8. 13. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 21. 24. 24. 23. 26. 32. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 23. 24. 23. 23. 27. 34. 31.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY