* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 53 56 61 62 61 57 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 53 56 61 62 61 57 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 37 36 35 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 6 13 14 19 20 22 25 33 45 46 29 35 38 SHEAR DIR 264 246 247 228 215 215 229 220 220 224 234 234 234 SST (C) 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.4 24.8 21.1 15.7 11.9 13.5 24.3 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 114 111 110 106 86 74 72 69 105 98 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 104 99 96 96 92 78 71 70 66 95 84 81 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -52.9 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 70 67 67 62 49 46 44 46 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 13 15 14 19 22 28 34 27 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 19 30 51 47 65 97 116 101 -43 -68 -73 200 MB DIV 47 60 38 75 93 69 61 67 78 80 23 -2 7 LAND (KM) 628 617 632 655 689 542 338 255 83 762 828 862 911 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.2 33.2 34.4 35.6 38.1 40.8 43.4 46.4 48.6 39.3 39.6 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 70.5 69.6 68.9 68.1 66.1 63.6 59.2 52.1 42.6 51.9 48.8 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 16 19 25 32 17 25 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 29. 32. 36. 37. 37. 33. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 28. 31. 36. 37. 36. 32. 16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY