* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 07/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 42 43 44 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 42 43 44 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 31 33 33 33 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 13 13 14 12 12 11 7 5 11 15 10 SHEAR DIR 66 64 69 85 87 113 105 116 76 63 61 96 61 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.8 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.1 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 147 150 149 144 144 126 120 116 115 138 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 64 62 58 53 50 38 35 36 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -19 -12 -5 3 29 40 46 34 33 25 40 -15 200 MB DIV 33 29 33 26 31 54 -3 14 27 1 10 9 -23 LAND (KM) 1473 1498 1533 1596 1671 1796 1970 2128 2301 2027 1752 1820 1659 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 16.2 12.3 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.1 118.3 119.8 121.2 124.1 127.3 130.3 133.1 135.9 138.6 139.5 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 13 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 21. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY