* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 40 49 55 56 62 63 63 54 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 40 49 55 56 62 63 63 54 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 36 37 36 35 34 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 17 18 29 37 36 56 62 31 18 23 SHEAR DIR 254 265 240 241 247 248 249 229 243 219 259 267 271 SST (C) 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.4 23.5 18.0 12.5 14.1 23.0 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 118 113 110 110 97 78 73 70 95 88 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 102 99 95 95 86 73 71 67 84 78 76 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -53.8 -54.1 -52.9 -52.1 -55.0 -56.5 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 70 70 71 62 56 48 49 36 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 13 15 14 20 25 34 34 26 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 -3 15 7 34 74 110 128 166 -38 -93 -115 200 MB DIV 50 42 67 79 82 82 77 43 31 65 0 -25 0 LAND (KM) 734 741 765 795 814 665 448 340 120 799 880 1213 1449 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.9 32.7 33.9 35.0 37.4 40.0 42.5 45.7 48.5 41.4 41.2 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.2 68.3 67.5 66.6 65.0 62.8 59.2 52.5 42.1 44.9 40.0 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 17 23 34 17 19 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 9. 13. 19. 18. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 30. 32. 37. 39. 39. 30. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 24. 30. 31. 37. 38. 38. 29. 12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY