* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 07/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 39 41 42 44 44 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 39 41 42 44 44 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 32 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 13 10 11 10 12 8 8 9 9 3 9 SHEAR DIR 59 62 65 94 111 110 95 106 58 73 127 207 183 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 25.6 24.8 24.6 24.1 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 150 148 143 140 121 112 110 104 102 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 62 61 59 54 46 38 32 30 30 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -14 -8 -3 20 31 44 35 38 34 38 75 200 MB DIV 36 42 40 30 52 39 21 16 5 17 -8 -15 17 LAND (KM) 1462 1495 1537 1594 1653 1769 1939 2081 2241 2022 1771 1529 2187 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.7 118.8 120.2 121.6 124.5 127.5 130.4 133.2 135.8 138.1 140.4 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 19. 19. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY