* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 52 56 62 66 60 50 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 52 56 62 66 60 50 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 32 32 30 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 15 17 24 39 59 68 51 44 46 35 SHEAR DIR 274 247 247 255 256 238 230 227 228 203 231 264 270 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.3 25.3 21.7 15.4 11.2 13.7 17.8 16.9 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 116 111 109 110 89 75 73 69 74 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 101 96 94 95 80 72 72 66 68 70 68 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -54.2 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 65 70 66 59 47 46 36 39 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 18 24 32 34 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -9 -9 -3 8 36 85 123 139 175 -40 -105 -165 200 MB DIV 39 58 85 76 69 108 45 46 49 62 3 0 -20 LAND (KM) 805 837 884 918 852 649 453 327 365 1243 1081 1503 1445 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.3 35.3 37.9 40.9 44.0 46.9 50.5 45.5 46.2 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 67.7 66.7 65.9 65.0 63.3 61.0 56.7 48.1 36.0 39.0 33.1 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 16 20 28 39 16 12 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 9. 6. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 19. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 28. 32. 37. 42. 36. 27. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 31. 37. 41. 35. 25. 9. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY