* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 61 65 71 69 58 44 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 61 65 71 69 58 44 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 41 40 37 34 31 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 16 17 23 34 58 76 57 46 34 35 37 SHEAR DIR 249 257 260 250 247 254 239 235 219 252 264 263 259 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 24.7 19.6 12.7 14.5 22.2 21.0 19.5 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 120 119 119 106 83 74 70 89 84 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 104 102 103 92 77 72 66 79 75 70 67 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -54.3 -54.3 -52.5 -52.4 -53.6 -56.2 -55.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 71 70 62 56 49 46 36 39 45 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 14 19 24 32 37 34 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 -1 -3 8 47 126 153 193 -28 -103 -133 -121 200 MB DIV 59 78 72 62 70 81 39 54 58 12 -7 4 39 LAND (KM) 826 871 879 811 734 527 372 112 923 773 1094 1322 1470 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.9 37.0 39.7 42.7 46.7 49.6 43.2 43.5 44.1 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 66.7 65.7 64.8 63.9 61.7 58.1 51.6 40.4 44.6 39.9 36.5 33.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 18 25 35 15 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 12. 11. 8. 7. 4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 18. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 32. 36. 41. 40. 29. 16. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 31. 35. 41. 39. 28. 14. -1. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY