* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 07/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 43 52 59 64 69 73 76 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 43 52 59 64 69 73 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 31 37 46 56 66 75 81 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 3 7 9 6 1 6 5 6 8 8 8 SHEAR DIR 8 75 91 29 21 118 177 198 304 261 312 256 278 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 134 132 135 139 141 142 141 140 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 136 135 133 134 138 140 142 140 138 141 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 61 62 62 62 54 56 54 59 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 58 44 31 27 29 35 42 42 62 67 75 200 MB DIV 33 23 44 31 -6 -14 -11 17 2 -4 -2 28 12 LAND (KM) 878 833 789 756 746 751 710 473 287 277 305 327 304 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 14.0 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 46.8 47.9 49.1 50.3 52.5 54.8 57.4 60.0 62.7 65.2 67.2 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 4 7 3 5 6 5 7 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 22. 31. 40. 46. 51. 55. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 23. 32. 39. 44. 49. 53. 56. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY