* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 07/30/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 40 42 43 44 44 43 44
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 40 42 43 44 44 43 44
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 33 33 32 30 29
SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 5 11 8 8 6 5 8 11 6 6 6
SHEAR DIR 59 59 68 91 105 102 128 69 91 137 213 202 216
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 148 145 143 132 116 112 104 102 101 105
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 58 56 49 43 35 28 33 35 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -11 2 7 21 48 60 64 69 61 58 66
200 MB DIV 35 21 33 48 57 56 34 30 26 20 0 -22 -10
LAND (KM) 1490 1532 1580 1627 1670 1786 1907 2054 2226 1992 1735 1505 1367
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.2 18.2 18.6 18.6 17.5
LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.3 120.3 121.6 122.8 125.5 128.0 130.8 133.4 135.9 138.3 140.5 142.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 9 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. 19.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 19.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY