* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 07/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 57 59 57 55 45 37 22 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 57 59 57 55 45 37 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 35 32 29 27 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 20 22 26 43 55 73 41 30 43 42 46 SHEAR DIR 254 250 242 236 253 253 239 231 228 231 239 254 245 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 25.5 20.5 15.2 10.9 21.3 23.0 24.1 23.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 121 112 85 75 65 87 93 99 93 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 105 104 97 77 72 63 79 81 83 79 75 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -54.7 -54.6 -53.5 -52.0 -54.1 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 63 55 47 50 37 41 42 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 11 12 14 18 20 24 30 26 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 7 16 23 84 104 171 -5 -35 -72 -92 -81 200 MB DIV 80 73 63 71 93 63 57 65 14 0 6 8 9 LAND (KM) 785 774 715 640 525 378 193 519 565 721 916 1064 1149 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.5 36.5 37.8 39.1 41.9 45.1 49.5 41.8 41.6 41.4 41.5 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 66.5 65.5 64.4 63.2 60.0 54.7 46.0 51.2 47.5 44.3 41.9 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 22 31 10 20 13 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 14. 11. 8. 7. 3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 12. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 28. 30. 28. 26. 16. 9. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 29. 27. 25. 15. 7. -8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY