* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 07/30/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 29 36 43 53 61 66 71 75 76
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 29 36 43 53 61 66 71 75 76
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 36 44 53 63 72 79
SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 8 8 8 6 8 3 7 6 12 10 15
SHEAR DIR 84 89 30 7 48 66 46 14 347 331 345 322 352
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 137 138 141 142 142 141 143 144 140 140
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 139 140 143 143 144 143 145 147 138 137
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 9 10 9 10
700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 61 61 63 61 63 59 62 62 65 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 53 42 34 31 27 23 33 35 57 70 76
200 MB DIV 22 35 30 -1 -5 3 -5 34 28 8 10 19 55
LAND (KM) 790 736 686 674 670 664 449 263 277 311 227 238 201
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 13.0
LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.3 49.5 50.8 52.0 54.6 57.3 60.1 63.1 66.1 69.0 72.5 74.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 3 4 7 5 4 4 3 5 6 4 5 6 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 32. 42. 49. 53. 58. 59.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 23. 33. 41. 46. 51. 55. 56.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY