* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 07/30/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 44 46 49 52 54 54 52
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 44 46 49 52 54 54 52
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 32 31 30 29
SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 14 10 9 8 7 7 9 6 9 7 8
SHEAR DIR 67 67 72 74 57 74 29 39 51 185 272 216 265
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.4 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.1 24.2 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 145 144 141 129 116 113 108 104 103 108
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 59 59 57 47 43 38 31 28 32 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 14 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 2 5 5 32 42 67 70 72 48 55 82
200 MB DIV 29 27 45 48 40 34 32 15 29 4 -4 -18 -3
LAND (KM) 1537 1588 1641 1682 1732 1869 2004 2153 2126 1841 1573 1339 1390
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.2 17.8 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.3 121.4 122.7 123.9 126.6 129.2 132.0 134.8 137.4 139.9 142.2 142.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 6 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/30/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY